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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Oct 14 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 14-Oct 16 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 14-Oct 16 2024

Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16
00-03UT3.672.674.67 (G1)
03-06UT3.002.003.67
06-09UT2.332.003.67
09-12UT2.001.673.33
12-15UT1.331.673.67
15-18UT1.672.004.00
18-21UT2.003.334.00
21-00UT2.674.333.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 16 Oct due to possible CME influences.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2024

Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16
S1 or greater15%15%15%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels with a slight chance for a solar radiation storm event through 16 Oct as ARs 3848 and 3849 transits the western limb.

Radio Blackout Activity

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2024

Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16
R1-R255%55%55%
R3 or greater10%10%10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event through 16 Oct.

Sun Images


eit 171 eit 195 eit 284 eit 304
 

Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

 
SDO/HMI
Continuum
SDO/HMI
Magnetogram
LASCO C2 LASCO C3
 

The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.
 

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.

 for more information

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New regular size page, New 1280×1024 window, and New 1600×1200 window.

Solar cycle


Sunspot numbers F10.7CM Radio flux AP
 
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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.

 
Solar wind Satellite impact Xray flux
 
 for more information for more information for more information

On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. Right: 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.

Auroral activity


Northern Auroral map Southern Auroral map
 

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Introduction Movie


Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.



Also in Quicktime format: Large (269M) and Small ( 60M).


Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).

Vremenski podatki so objavljeni na:

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WeatherlinkIP

MapView

Geostik

Oprema, ki se uporablja:

Vremenska postaja
Davis VP2+ ventilirana

Vremenski program
WeatherLink

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Vremensko društvo ZEVS

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Vremensko društvo ZEVS

Meteorološki podatki vremenske postaje Rakitna so neuradni, meteorološka postaja sama pa ni del državne mrež:e Agencije Republike Slovenije za okolje (ARSO),
je pa vključena v Vremensko društvo ZEVS. Prikazani podatki so izmerjeni točno, vendar so zgolj informativni in nimajo značaja uradnega podatka.

Podatke meri vremenska postaja "Davis VP2+ ventilirana" od 05.03.2011 dalje.

Opozarjamo, da ne prevzamemo odgovornosti za morebitno nastalo škodo, ki bi nastala zaradi odločitve, sprejete na osnovi teh podatkov!