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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Jul 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 24-Jul 26 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 24-Jul 26 2024

Jul 24Jul 25Jul 26
00-03UT5.67 (G2)3.671.67
03-06UT4.67 (G1)3.001.33
06-09UT4.002.671.33
09-12UT3.002.671.33
12-15UT2.332.671.33
15-18UT2.002.331.33
18-21UT2.671.331.67
21-00UT3.001.671.67

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely on 24 Jul due to the anticipated arrival of the 21 Jul CME.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 24-Jul 26 2024

Jul 24Jul 25Jul 26
S1 or greater99%15%15%

Rationale: S1 conditions are currently being observed. There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms between 25 to 26 Jul.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jul 17 2024 0639 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 24-Jul 26 2024

Jul 24Jul 25Jul 26
R1-R260%60%60%
R3 or greater15%15%15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely through 26 Jul, with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) event, due to multiple complex regions on the visible disk.

Sun Images


eit 171 eit 195 eit 284 eit 304
 

Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

 
SDO/HMI
Continuum
SDO/HMI
Magnetogram
LASCO C2 LASCO C3
 

The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.
 

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.

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Solar cycle


Sunspot numbers F10.7CM Radio flux AP
 
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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.

 
Solar wind Satellite impact Xray flux
 
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On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. Right: 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.

Auroral activity


Northern Auroral map Southern Auroral map
 

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Introduction Movie


Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.



Also in Quicktime format: Large (269M) and Small ( 60M).


Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).

You find our weather info also at:

Slovenia Weather Network

WeatherlinkIP

MapView

Geostik

Equipment we use:

Weather-station
Davis VP2+ aspirated

Weather-program
WeatherLink

Weather-server
Shuttle DS10U5

Provider
Vremensko društvo ZEVS

Davis VP2+ aspirated

WeatherLink

Shuttle DS10U5

Vremensko društvo ZEVS

Meteorological data of weather stations Rakitna is unofficial, the meteorological station isn’t a part of the National Meteorological Service of Slovenia (ARSO),
but it is included in the Weather organization ZEVS. The data is measured precisely and are exclusively for informative purposes and does not have the character of the official data.

The data is measured by the weather station "Davis VP2+ aspirated" from 05.03.2011.

We are warning, that we don’t take any responsibilities for any possible damage, resulting from the decisions taken on the basis of these data.